PLOS ONE: [sortOrder=DATE_NEWEST_FIRST, sort=Date, newest first, q=subject:"Atmospheric science"]PLOShttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/webmaster@plos.orgaccelerating the publication of peer-reviewed sciencehttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/search/feed/atom?sortOrder=DATE_NEWEST_FIRST&sort=Date,+newest+first&unformattedQuery=subject:%22Atmospheric+science%22All PLOS articles are Open Access.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/resource/img/favicon.icohttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/resource/img/favicon.ico2024-03-28T19:06:59ZEvaluation and optimization of outdoor wind environment in block based on space syntax and CFD simulationPeng CaoWenhui Li10.1371/journal.pone.02976832024-03-28T14:00:00Z2024-03-28T14:00:00Z<p>by Peng Cao, Wenhui Li</p>
The wind environment quality at the height of pedestrians can significantly affect the thermal comfort and physical and mental health of pedestrians, promote the diffusion of air pollutants and inhibit the formation of urban heat island effect, and has been paid more and more attention in the field of urban and rural planning. This paper takes Jianlan Road commercial pedestrian Street as an example to maximize the thermal comfort of pedestrians. Based on CFD numerical simulation technology and space syntax theory, the pedestrian wind environment of the accessible space of the block is selected for quantitative research. Through numerical simulation, the influence of block spatial form on the wind environment at pedestrian height under the initial condition of uniform air flow is analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward for the optimization of block spatial form. Finally, the block optimization scheme is verified and simulated. The visualization results show that the wind environment quality of the optimized high-accessibility space is significantly improved, the proportion of comfort zone is increased from 58.2% to 86%, and the static wind rate is reduced from 41.8% to 14%. The wind environment optimization effect is obvious.Reflections from COP28: Resisting healthwashing in climate change negotiationsAmiteshwar SinghTarek EzzineRenzo R. GuintoSophie GeppRobbie M. ParksMeelan ThondooPoorvaprabha PatilKim R. van Daalen10.1371/journal.pgph.00030762024-03-28T14:00:00Z2024-03-28T14:00:00Z<p>by Amiteshwar Singh, Tarek Ezzine, Renzo R. Guinto, Sophie Gepp, Robbie M. Parks, Meelan Thondoo, Poorvaprabha Patil, Kim R. van Daalen</p>Advancing the climate change and health nexus: The 2024 AgendaVanessa KerrySadath Sayeed10.1371/journal.pgph.00030082024-03-28T14:00:00Z2024-03-28T14:00:00Z<p>by Vanessa Kerry, Sadath Sayeed</p>Climate factors associated with cancer incidence: An ecological study covering 33 cancers from population-based registries in 37 countriesHaowen WangHongmei ZengHui MiaoChang ShuYuming GuoJohn S. Ji10.1371/journal.pclm.00003622024-03-28T14:00:00Z2024-03-28T14:00:00Z<p>by Haowen Wang, Hongmei Zeng, Hui Miao, Chang Shu, Yuming Guo, John S. Ji</p>
Cancer etiology is multifactorial, with climate change and environmental factors such as extreme weather events and ozone layer destruction potentially increasing cancer risk. Investigating climate factors with cancer incidence can provide valuable insights for prevention and future disease burden prediction. We conducted a population-based ecological study using data from the World Health Organization’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus, 89 cancer registries from 1998 to 2012) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER, 607 US counties from 2000 to 2018) Program. We tracked climate factors through satellite-based remote sensing, including green space, stratospheric ozone concentration, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. We performed linear panel regression models to estimate the effects of both long-term exposure, lag effect, and change rate of climate factors on cancer incidences. We adjusted for smoking prevalence, air pollution, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to account for potential confounding factors. Our study included more than 430 million underlying populations across 37 countries. Higher green space exposure (per 0.1-unit normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was associated with decreased incidence of lung cancer (up to 6.66 cases [95%CI 4.38–8.93] per 100,000) and prostate cancer (up to 10.84 cases [95% CI 7.73–13.95] per 100,000). Increased solar radiation was associated with a higher incidence of melanoma, but a lower incidence of prostate cancer. No evidence was found to suggest associations between temperature or precipitation and cancer incidence. However, a rapid increase in temperature was linked to higher incidences of corpus uteri cancer and melanoma. Long-term exposure and rapid changes in climate factors may influence changes in cancer incidence, particularly lung and prostate cancers. While some associations were supported by existing evidence (such as solar radiation and melanoma), further research is necessary to investigate the etiology of novel cancer risk factors.Can cyclone exposure explain behavioural and demographic variation among lemur species?Alison M. BehieTravis S. SteffensKeaghan YaxleyAlan VincentPatricia C. WrightSteig E. JohnsonMary S. M. Pavelka10.1371/journal.pone.03009722024-03-27T14:00:00Z2024-03-27T14:00:00Z<p>by Alison M. Behie, Travis S. Steffens, Keaghan Yaxley, Alan Vincent, Patricia C. Wright, Steig E. Johnson, Mary S. M. Pavelka</p>
Madagascar has a harsh and stochastic climate because of regular natural disturbances. This history of regular cyclones has been hypothesised to have directed evolutionary changes to lemur behaviour and morphology that make them more resilient to sudden environmental change. These adaptations may include: small group sizes, high degrees of energy-conserving behaviours, generalist habitat use, small home ranges, small body size, and a limited number of frugivorous species. To date, however, no one has tested how variation in cyclone exposure across Madagascar is associated with variation in these resilience traits. In this study, we created a detailed cyclone impact map for Madagascar using Koppen-Geiger climate class, historical cyclone tracks, the Saffir Class of cyclone and hurricane intensity, and precipitation data. We also used existing literature to calculate a resilience score for 26 lemur species for which data existed on resilience traits. Our cyclone impact map was then overlaid on known geographic ranges of these species and compared to resilience score while controlling for phylogenetic non-independence and spatial autocorrelation. We found no association between cyclone impact in a lemur range and their resilience score. When assessing traits individually, however, we found that cyclone impact was positively associated with body size, suggesting that the more impacted a species is by cyclones the smaller they are. We also found cyclone impact to be negatively associated with frugivory, with species in higher impact zones eating more fruit. While unexpected, this could reflect an increased production in fruit in tree fall gaps following cyclones. While we did not find a pattern between cyclone impact and behavioural resilience in lemurs, we suggest a similar study at a global scale across all primates would allow for more taxonomic variation and reveal larger patterns key to understanding past and future vulnerability to natural disturbances in primates.The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in citiesAlessandro FilazzolaMarc T. J. JohnsonKimberly BarrettSue HayesNamrata ShresthaLaura TimmsJames Scott MacIvor10.1371/journal.pone.02992172024-03-27T14:00:00Z2024-03-27T14:00:00Z<p>by Alessandro Filazzola, Marc T. J. Johnson, Kimberly Barrett, Sue Hayes, Namrata Shrestha, Laura Timms, James Scott MacIvor</p>
Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending <i>great urban shift</i> where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.The impact of climate change on the agriculture and the economy of Southern Gaul: New perspectives of agent-based modellingNicolas BernigaudAlberte BondeauJoël GuiotFrédérique BertoncelloMarie-Jeanne OuriachiLaurent BoubyPhilippe LeveauLoup BernardDelphine Isoardi10.1371/journal.pone.02988952024-03-27T14:00:00Z2024-03-27T14:00:00Z<p>by Nicolas Bernigaud, Alberte Bondeau, Joël Guiot, Frédérique Bertoncello, Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi, Laurent Bouby, Philippe Leveau, Loup Bernard, Delphine Isoardi</p>
What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2<sup>nd</sup> century BCE and the 3<sup>rd</sup> century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4<sup>th</sup>-7<sup>th</sup> century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity.Exploring the temporal dynamics of methane ebullition in a subtropical freshwater reservoirLediane MarconTobias BleningerMichael MännichMayra IshikawaStephan HilgertAndreas Lorke10.1371/journal.pone.02981862024-03-27T14:00:00Z2024-03-27T14:00:00Z<p>by Lediane Marcon, Tobias Bleninger, Michael Männich, Mayra Ishikawa, Stephan Hilgert, Andreas Lorke</p>
The transport of methane from sediments to the atmosphere by rising gas bubbles (ebullition) can be the dominant, yet highly variable emission pathway from shallow aquatic ecosystems. Ebullition fluxes have been reported to vary in space and time, as methane production, accumulation, and bubble release from the sediment matrix is affected by several physical and bio-geochemical processes acting at different timescales. Time-series analysis and empirical models have been used for investigating the temporal dynamics of ebullition and its controls. In this study, we analyzed the factors governing the temporal dynamics of ebullition and evaluated the application of empirical models to reproduce these dynamics across different timescales and across different aquatic systems. The analysis is based on continuous high frequency measurements of ebullition fluxes and environmental variables in a mesotrophic subtropical and polymictic freshwater reservoir. The synchronization of ebullition events across different monitoring sites, and the extent to which ebullition was correlated to environmental variables varied throughout the three years of observations and were affected by thermal stratification in the reservoir. Empirical models developed for other aquatic systems could reproduce a limited fraction of the variability in observed ebullition fluxes (R<sup>2</sup> < 0.3), however the predictions could be improved by considering additional environmental variables. The model performance depended on the timescale. For daily and weekly time intervals, a generalized additive model could reproduce 70 and 96% of ebullition variability but could not resolve hourly flux variations (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.19). Lastly, we discuss the potential application of empirical models for filling gaps in ebullition measurements and for reproducing the main temporal dynamics of the fluxes. The results provide crucial information for emission estimates, and for the development and implementation of strategies targeting at a reduction of methane emissions from inland waters.Emotional signatures of climate policy supportTeresa A. MyersConnie Roser-RenoufAnthony LeiserowitzEdward Maibach10.1371/journal.pclm.00003812024-03-27T14:00:00Z2024-03-27T14:00:00Z<p>by Teresa A. Myers, Connie Roser-Renouf, Anthony Leiserowitz, Edward Maibach</p>
The optimal emotional tone for climate communication has been debated by scholars and the press, but little is known about the effects of emotions on different types of policy support. In this paper we examine multiple discrete emotions people experience in reaction to climate change, and assess the strength of these emotions as predictors of support for different types of mitigation and adaptation policies. Using multi-wave, cross-sectional, nationally representative samples of American adults, we test whether guilt, anger, hope, fear, and sadness are uniquely associated with support for different types of climate policies. Guilt is most strongly related to support for personally costly policies, hope to support for proactive policies, and fear to support for regulatory policies. This research suggests that communicators should consider how their climate campaign’s emotional tone aligns with their policy goals.Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west BangladeshLucie ClechJuan Pablo SierraMuhammad Abdul MannanMollah M. Shamsul KabirMrittika BaruaJhan-Carlo EspinozaValery Ridde10.1371/journal.pclm.00002392024-03-26T14:00:00Z2024-03-26T14:00:00Z<p>by Lucie Clech, Juan Pablo Sierra, Muhammad Abdul Mannan, Mollah M. Shamsul Kabir, Mrittika Barua, Jhan-Carlo Espinoza, Valery Ridde</p>
Bangladesh is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Internal migration is often presented as a response to environmental degradation. Here, using a people-centred perspective, we explore the complexity of the links between climate-induced change, environmental degradation caused by waterlogging and seasonal rural migration. We used an inductive qualitative approach in social sciences, conducting fourteen semi-directed interviews and six focus group discussions in March-April 2022. We related those results to a rainfall analysis on CHIRPS data for 1981-2021and we represented interactions and feedback between changes and livelihoods in a model. A complex picture of the situation is emerging, showing the interweaving effects of non-climatic and climatic changes, their interplay at different scales, their cumulative effects, the interactions between livelihood types and feedback between social and natural systems. Most of the climate-induced changes gradually become noticeable over the past 25 years. Climate data confirm these changes in recent decades, with July being wetter and January being dryer. Villagers reported waterlogging as the most significant change in their community, pointing to its multiple causes, originating in non-local and local, non-climatic anthropic changes, exacerbated by shrimp farm enclosures and worsened by climate-induced changes such as heavier rains, wetter monsoons and cyclones. Tiger prawn farms, reported as a lucrative and local adaptation to waterlogging and salinisation for the ones who can afford it, worsen the situation for the less wealthy, causing waterlogging and salinisation of the adjacent agricultural lands and buildings, the disappearance of traditional fishing and a reduction of the local job market. In addition, erratic rain patterns, droughts and cyclones affect local production and labour markets. COVID-19 lockdowns, by impacting markets and mobilities, further aggravated the situation. Inequality has increased as the range of adaptations of the less wealthy appears limited in this context of multiple crises.The influence of environmental diplomacy, economic determinants and renewable energy consumption on environmental degradation: Empirical evidence of G20 countriesMuhammad RizwanullahJian ShiMuhammad NasrullahXue Zhou10.1371/journal.pone.03009212024-03-25T14:00:00Z2024-03-25T14:00:00Z<p>by Muhammad Rizwanullah, Jian Shi, Muhammad Nasrullah, Xue Zhou</p>
This study examines how various environmental and economic variables contribute to environmental degradation. Industrialization, trade openness, and foreign direct investment are among the variables, as are environmental diplomacy, environmental diplomacy secure, and renewable energy consumption. Therefore, the data covers the years 1991–2020, and our sample includes all 19 countries and two groups (the European Union and the African Union). The research used the Pesaran CD test to determine cross-section dependency, CIPS and CADF test to determine stationarity, the Wald test for hetrodcedasasticity and the Wooldridge test for autocorrelation; therefore, VIF for multicollinearity, Durbin and Hausman to analyze the endogeneity. It also employed Westerlund’s cointegration test to ensure cross-sectional dependence, Wald test for group-wise heteroscedasticity, Wooldridge test for autocorrelation, VIF for multicollinearity, and Durbin and Hausman for endogeneity. The two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to estimate the results and confirm the relationship between independent variables (Industrialization, trade openness, FDI, environmental diplomacy, secure environmental diplomacy, and renewable energy) and dependent variables (Environmental Degradation) in G20 countries. Therefore, Industrialization, trade openness, foreign direct investment, ecological diplomacy, and renewable energy consumption significantly impact ecological degradation. Environmental diplomacy is crucial to combat degradation and stimulate global collaboration. G20 nations enact strict environmental restrictions to tackle climate change and encourage economic growth.Differential impact of environmental factors on airborne live bacteria and inorganic particles in an underground walkwayHiroyuki YamaguchiTorahiko OkuboEriko NozakiTakako Osaki10.1371/journal.pone.03009202024-03-21T14:00:00Z2024-03-21T14:00:00Z<p>by Hiroyuki Yamaguchi, Torahiko Okubo, Eriko Nozaki, Takako Osaki</p>
We previously reported that variations in the number and type of bacteria found in public spaces are influenced by environmental factors. However, based on field survey data alone, whether the dynamics of bacteria in the air change as a result of a single environmental factor or multiple factors working together remains unclear. To address this, mathematical modeling may be applied. We therefore conducted a reanalysis of the previously acquired data using principal component analysis (PCA) in conjunction with a generalized linear model (Glm2) and a statistical analysis of variance (ANOVA) test employing the χ<sup>2</sup> distribution. The data used for the analysis were reused from a previous public environmental survey conducted at 8:00–20:00 on May 2, June 1, and July 5, 2016 (regular sampling) and at 5:50–7:50 and 20:15–24:15 on July 17, 2017 (baseline sampling) in the Sapporo underground walking space, a 520-meter-long underground walkway. The dataset consisted of 60 samples (22 samples for “bacterial flora”), including variables such as “temperature (T),” “humidity (H),” “atmospheric pressure (A),” “traffic pedestrians (TP),” “number of inorganic particles (Δ5: 1–5 μm),” “number of live airborne bacteria,” and “bacterial flora.” Our PCA with these environmental factors (T, H, A, and TP) revealed that the 60 samples could be categorized into four groups (G1 to G4), primarily based on variations in PC1 [Loadings: T(˗0.62), H(˗0.647), TP(0.399), A(0.196)] and PC2 [Loadings: A(˗0.825), TP(0.501), H(0.209), T(˗0.155)]. Notably, the number of inorganic particles significantly increased from G4 to G1, but the count of live bacteria was highest in G2, with no other clear pattern. Further analysis with Glm2 indicated that changes in inorganic particles could largely be explained by two variables (H/TP), while live bacteria levels were influenced by all explanatory variables (TP/A/H/T). ANOVA tests confirmed that inorganic particles and live bacteria were influenced by different factors. Moreover, there were minimal changes in bacterial flora observed among the groups (G1–G4). In conclusion, our findings suggest that the dynamics of live bacteria in the underground walkway differ from those of inorganic particles and are regulated in a complex manner by multiple environmental factors. This discovery may contribute to improving public health in urban settings.Climate change-induced shifts in survival and size of the worlds’ northernmost oviparous snake: A 68-year studyJohan ElmbergLudvig PalmhedenCarl EdelstamMattias HagmanSimon Kärvemo10.1371/journal.pone.03003632024-03-21T14:00:00Z2024-03-21T14:00:00Z<p>by Johan Elmberg, Ludvig Palmheden, Carl Edelstam, Mattias Hagman, Simon Kärvemo</p>
Because of their dependence on ambient temperature ectothermic animals can serve as sentinels of conservation problems related to global warming. Reptiles in temperate areas are especially well suited to study such effects, as their annual and daily activity patterns directly depend on ambient temperature. This study is based on annual data spanning 68 years from a fringe population of Grass Snakes (<i>Natrix natrix</i>), which is the world’s northernmost oviparous (egg-laying) reptile, and known to be constrained by temperature for reproduction, morphology, and behavior. Mark-recapture analyses showed that survival probability was generally higher in males than in females, and that it increased with body length. Body condition (scaled mass index) and body length increased over time, indicative of a longer annual activity period. Monthly survival was generally higher during winter (i.e., hibernation) than over the summer season. Summer survival increased over time, whilst winter survival decreased, especially during recent decades. Winter survival was lower when annual maximum snow depth was less than 15 cm, implying a negative effect of milder winters with less insulating snow cover. Our study demonstrates long-term shifts in body length, body condition and seasonal survival associated with a warming climate. Although the seasonal changes in survival ran in opposite directions and though changes were small in absolute terms, the trends did not cancel out, but total annual survival decreased. We conclude that effects of a warming climate can be diverse and pose a threat for thermophilic species in temperate regions, and that future studies should consider survival change by season, preferably in a long-term approach.Six-dimensional force/torque sensor for aerodynamic characteristic study of high-speed train with different wind angles under stationary tornadoMu LiYecheng WuJiankun GanBo ChaiYuanzhao Zhang10.1371/journal.pone.02984012024-03-21T14:00:00Z2024-03-21T14:00:00Z<p>by Mu Li, Yecheng Wu, Jiankun Gan, Bo Chai, Yuanzhao Zhang</p>
Researchers conducted an investigation by tornado simulator to study the impact of wind angle on the aerodynamic characteristics of a reduced (1:150) high-speed train model using six-dimensional force/torque sensor. The reduced scale model size can match the relative size relationship between high-speed train and tornado vortex core in real condition. Results show that the wind angle affects the mean value and standard deviation of the force and moment coefficient of the high-speed train at the same radial position. The variations of the mean value and standard deviation of the pitching moment coefficient of the high-speed train carriage model at 60°and 90°are different from that at other wind angles. The variations of the mean value of the pitching moment coefficient of the high-speed train head model at 0°, 15°and 30°are different from that at other wind angles. The variations of the standard deviation of the pitching moment coefficient of the high-speed train head model at 60°,75°and 90°are different from that at other wind angles. This research will help the further study of the operation safety of high-speed train in the event of a tornado impacting a high-speed train network.Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall across agro-ecologies in East Guji Zone, Southeast EthiopiaMenbere SahiluSolomon TekalignYimer MohammedTegegne SishawHaji KedirSolomon Asfaw10.1371/journal.pclm.00003612024-03-21T14:00:00Z2024-03-21T14:00:00Z<p>by Menbere Sahilu, Solomon Tekalign, Yimer Mohammed, Tegegne Sishaw, Haji Kedir, Solomon Asfaw</p>
Distribution and trends of rainfall reveal spatial and temporal variability that have a paramount effect on the life and livelihood of small-holder farmers. This study aimed to analyze spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall distribution across the three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of East Guji. Time series gridded daily rainfall data (1990–2020) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institution. Different descriptive statistics, trend tests: Man Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator, Inverse Distance Weighted Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used in the study. The finding demonstrated that altitude and rainfall decrease as one advances from the western (highland) to the eastern (lowland) direction in the study area where the highest rainfall was recorded in Solemo (highland) and the least in Negele (lowland).The study showed that as altitude increases annual rainfall also increases and rainfall variability decreases. Similarly the mean length of the growing season declines as one advance from the highlands to the lowlands. The PCI of the lowlands, midlands, and highlands AEZs was 19%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The PCI showed that those highlands had moderately concentrated rainfall but both lowlands, and midlands, had an irregular distribution of rainfall. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) indicated that highland areas had moderate variability in rainfall in all seasons except winter. In contrast, the low and midlands had shown high variability of rainfall (>30%) in all seasons. From a seasonal perspective, both CV and PCI revealed that the winter season showed more variability than others. Moreover, a significant increasing trend of annual rainfall was observed in the highlands AEZs (Bore 15.3mm/year and Solemo14.6mm/year), lowland AEZs (Chembe 10.9mm/year, Dawa 8mm/year and Bitata 7.8mm/year) as well as midland AEZs (Kercha 14.5mm/year) at a significant level of 5%. Therefore, strategies should be designed to use additional water resources for irrigation; and provide short-cycle grown and drought-resistant crops in the rest of the midlands and lowlands AEZs.