About the Authors

Marc Lipsitch

mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu

Affiliations Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Martin Lajous

Affiliations Center for Population Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Justin J. O'Hagan

Affiliation Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Ted Cohen

Affiliations Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Joel C. Miller

Affiliations Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America

Edward Goldstein

Affiliation Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Leon Danon

Affiliations Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

Jacco Wallinga

Affiliation Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Steven Riley

Affiliation School of Public Health and Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China

Scott F. Dowell

Affiliation Division of Global Disease Detection and Emergency Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

Carrie Reed

Affiliation Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

Meg McCarron

Affiliation Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

Competing Interests

ML has received compensation for consulting for the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry, funded in part by Roche.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: M. Lipsitch JM SR SD. Performed the experiments: M. Lipsitch. Analyzed the data: M. Lipsitch JJO TC JM EG LD JW CR MM. Wrote the paper: M. Lipsitch. Obtained the data: M. Lajous JJO CR MM.