About the Authors

Pauline M. Leclerc

Affiliation Institut Pasteur, Unité d'Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, Paris, France

Alan P. Matthews

Affiliation School of Physics, University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa

Michel L. Garenne

mgarenne@pasteur.fr

Affiliations Institut Pasteur, Unité d'Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, Paris, France, Institut pour la Recherche et le Développement, Paris, France

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: PML AM MLG. Analyzed the data: PML AM MLG. Wrote the paper: PML AM MLG. Initiated the study: MLG. Contributed to the data analysis and to the writing: MLG. Contributed to the design: PML, AM. Carried out all the simulations: PML. Wrote the first draft: PML. Wrote the computer code for the program: AM. Contributed to the writing: AM.